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-   -   Hiring Spree? (http://www.goldtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42298)

David 02-03-2012 7:19 AM

Hiring Spree?
 
Certainly this is good news. Make no mistake the media will hype this as the be all end all. They will downplay the price of gas.

Economy adds 243,000 jobs in Jan.; jobless rate 8.3%


SOURCE

luknikfan 02-03-2012 7:58 AM

Great news.

Plus November and December numbers were revised up to over 200K job gains each month.

We probably need another month or two of this to be sure we are in full on jobs recovery but it sure looks that way. If the gains stay over 200K the unemployment rate will fall quickly.

Several companies here in the Bay Area this week announced huge hiring plans for this year.

It's true the media will hype this but it's just as true conservative radio and especially Rush and Hannity will talk it down.



Good news all around.

Bemused 02-03-2012 8:43 AM

As I have been saying, the economy has been in recovery for some time now. Employment is a trailing indicator, as always.

For example, Ronald Reagan inherited a bad economy from Carter in 1981. Unemployment steadily climbed during 1981, 1982, and into 1983 before it began to fall.

Some, including George Will IIRC, even predicted that Reagan would not be re-elected. Yet he won in a landslide in 1984.

I stand by my prediction. If the economic good news continues, Obama will be re-elected. It will not matter who the republican candidate is, in that case.

dcannady 02-03-2012 4:50 PM

Is it fishy? You bet!

"A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!"

SOURCE

Bureau of Labor Statistics

David 02-03-2012 6:25 PM

Santelli: 1.2 Million Fall Out Of Labor Force As Participation Rate Hits 20-Year Low

SOURCE

David 02-03-2012 6:26 PM

Why the official 8.3 percent unemployment rate is a phony number—and what it means for Obama’s reelection

SOURCE

GeronL 02-03-2012 6:32 PM

There was no hiring spree. Announced layoffs were up.

The government simply pretended that 1.2 million people don't want to work anymore.

schaabdl 02-03-2012 9:23 PM

Simple math - and voila the numbers work to whatever you need

GeronL 02-03-2012 9:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by schaabdl (Post 304739)
Simple math - and voila the numbers work to whatever you need

exactly.

Rifleman 02-03-2012 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bemused (Post 304684)
As I have been saying, the economy has been in recovery for some time now. Employment is a trailing indicator, as always.

For example, Ronald Reagan inherited a bad economy from Carter in 1981. Unemployment steadily climbed during 1981, 1982, and into 1983 before it began to fall.

Some, including George Will IIRC, even predicted that Reagan would not be re-elected. Yet he won in a landslide in 1984.

I stand by my prediction. If the economic good news continues, Obama will be re-elected. It will not matter who the republican candidate is, in that case.

Want to take this post back? Sure the economy is "in recovery", but a very pathetic one. If not for the last quarter, the economy would have barely topped 1%! The jobs generated are not sufficient to cover the new people that are enterng the workforce, except they aren;t neteirng the workforce, hence the 1.2 million that gave up looking for a job, who Obama is just too eager to NOT count so that the Unemployment Numers look better....

David 02-03-2012 11:16 PM

Implied Unemployment Rate Rises To 11.5%, Spread To Propaganda Number Surges To 30 Year High

SOURCE

BRamey 02-03-2012 11:23 PM

The numbers of people on public assistance has gone way up, but somehow the economy has improved because fewer people are supposedly employed? What BS.

GeronL 02-04-2012 11:58 AM

The government is pretending that 1.2 million more stopped looking.

The MSM celebrates

David 02-04-2012 1:21 PM

But when the rate declines, it's not always because many more people were hired. The unemployment rate can rise or fall even when no jobs are created or lost.

Last month, the rate fell because jobs were added. But that hasn't always been the case in the 2½ years since the Great Recession ended. One reason for the rate's decline is that fewer people are looking for work.
SOURCE

luknikfan 02-04-2012 8:25 PM

Larry Kudlow said today that despite his talk radio friends (Rush and Hannity) saying no, no, no - that the economy is not getting stronger. it's yes, yes, yes th economy is getting stronger. So who do you believe?

And Kudlow is no Obama fan - he reluctantly admitted today that In Trade there is now a 55% chance Obama is re-elected. He thinks that is a real possibilty.

For Kudlow this is a huge turnaround from a few months ago.

Not to mention Kudlow had David Malpese on his show today. The conservative party candidate for Senate in NY last go round. And he was enthusastic about these numbers - especially re: samll buiness.

So something doesn't quite add up. Based on what Rush and Hannity and Levin said yesterday. Malpese has cred - far moreso than Rush and Hannity - when it comes to economic issues.

Of course this is a snapshot but it is a honest assesment. Kudlow and Varney contradict what Rush and Hannity said about the unemployment numbers yesterday.

Kudlow is at least being honest in his assesment of the numbers.

BTW, Stuart Varney echoed Kudlow yesterday. The turnaround is real and Varney relucatantly admitted, it will help Obama. Which is a huge shift in his position from just several weeks ago on Hannity. No chance at that time, per Varney, that Obama could be reelected.

Varney and Kudlow are looking at the numbers/reality while Rush and Hannity are playing politics with the numbers. But, if this 200K growth continues both Hannity and Rush are going to have to back off or lose what little credibilty they have.

Kudlow admitting for the first time that Obama may be re-elected is huge. It speaks to his integrity I guess. Or else his not wanting to go down with the ship.

Anyone who believes Hannity who said it will be an electoral landslide for the GOP candidate next fall is drinking way too much kool-aid.

Bemused 02-04-2012 9:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rifleman (Post 304744)
Want to take this post back? Sure the economy is "in recovery", but a very pathetic one. If not for the last quarter, the economy would have barely topped 1%! The jobs generated are not sufficient to cover the new people that are enterng the workforce, except they aren;t neteirng the workforce, hence the 1.2 million that gave up looking for a job, who Obama is just too eager to NOT count so that the Unemployment Numers look better....

I waited until Kudlow's program tonight (we get a delayed broadcast here in SF)

To summarize Kudlow, yes there is "some" truth to the lower participation, but in Kudlow's opinion, you have to take the numbers at face value.

I'd post the link to the KSFO archives, but knowing that no on on this particular blog site would bother listening, I wont bother.

Something else came up on the Kudlow program in discussion with guests, that being that a LOT of people are dropping out of the employment market by taking early retirement. That number may well be significant, given the baby boom demographic, something neither Limbaugh nor the author of the article David Gold referenced had the insight to consider.

So NO I have no reason to retract. People like you will not be persuaded by detailed analysis. I know you wont change your minds. But you folks are WRONG. At this point in time, the jobs number ARE improving.

Your only hopes for defeating Obama is double dip recession or an Israeli attach on Iran both of which mean more destruction to the American economy and the American people.

Bemused 02-04-2012 9:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luknikfan (Post 304802)
Larry Kudlow said today that despite his talk radio friends (Rush and Hannity) saying no, no, no - that the economy is not getting stronger. it's yes, yes, yes th economy is getting stronger. So who do you believe?

And Kudlow is no Obama fan - he reluctantly admitted today that In Trade there is now a 55% chance Obama is re-elected. He thinks that is a real possibilty.

For Kudlow this is a huge turnaround from a few months ago.

Not to mention Kudlow had David Malpese on his show today. The conservative party candidate for Senate in NY last go round. And he was enthusastic about these numbers - especially re: samll buiness.

So something doesn't quite add up. Based on what Rush and Hannity and Levin said yesterday. Malpese has cred - far moreso than Rush and Hannity - when it comes to economic issues.

Of course this is a snapshot but it is a honest assesment. Kudlow and Varney contradict what Rush and Hannity said about the unemployment numbers yesterday.

Kudlow is at least being honest in his assesment of the numbers.

BTW, Stuart Varney echoed Kudlow yesterday. The turnaround is real and Varney relucatantly admitted, it will help Obama. Which is a huge shift in his position from just several weeks ago on Hannity. No chance at that time, per Varney, that Obama could be reelected.

Varney and Kudlow are looking at the numbers/reality while Rush and Hannity are playing politics with the numbers. But, if this 200K growth continues both Hannity and Rush are going to have to back off or lose what little credibilty they have.

Kudlow admitting for the first time that Obama may be re-elected is huge. It speaks to his integrity I guess. Or else his not wanting to go down with the ship.

Anyone who believes Hannity who said it will be an electoral landslide for the GOP candidate next fall is drinking way too much kool-aid.

Dont worry, luknikfan, most of the regulars here on Goldtalk wont bother giving any more thot to this topic. They have their marching orders from the whacky right. They have been told what to think and have dutifully added this to their talking points.

They will continue to recite, even as Obama is taking the oath of office for his second term.

David 02-06-2012 10:19 PM

CURL: Obama’s made-up jobless numbers

SOURCE

David 02-07-2012 2:05 PM

How significant are these numbers? Do Americans draw economic conclusions from these numbers? Or do they draw conclusions by their own experiences and observations? I don't know how to get these answers. Although, it's well known people are often doing "well" themselves, but are convinced others are suffering.

FastEddy 02-07-2012 5:58 PM

As we all seem to be saying here: Its All Newspeak.

The democrat agenda is to up the economy at every turn from now until November, trying to put patches and bandaids on Oh Bummer's holed and tarnished armor.

The complicit mean scream media will soft pedal and smooth the waters wherever and whenever possible.

In the mean time demofascist "progressives" will hide their machinations and manipulations of g'ment policies and acts.

One G'ment Newspeak Example: the two month "tax cut" for low income workers nationwide is being funded by a rate increase on re-fi and new home loans from Fanny and Freddy, amounting to 1/10th of a percent on mortgage rates ... for 30 years! Thus making middle class home buyers foot the bill long term, for the short term middle class non-buyers FICA reductions.

Newspeak # 1) This is not a tax cut at all, but a reduction in the mandatory Social Security contribution.
Newspeak # 2) Labeling this mortgage interest rate increase as an "offset" when none of the revenue generated will go back into the Social Security "Trust" Funds, but straight into the Treasury ... for congress to spend.
Newspeak # 3) Calling this a "middle class tax cut" when the middle classes will actually be charged more than the FICA reduction ... This is a g'ment revenue increase. This will not create any more jobs and may actually reduce new home construction (again).


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