Israeli Strike on Iran Imminent?

[David]

Suicide bombing in Bulgaria kills six. Israel blames Iran. May mean Israeli attack on Iran. Stay tuned.

[FastEddy]

Several years ago I warned a terrorist operative (here and elsewhere) that to discharge any thermonuclear or chemical or biological weapon upon Israel would cause the King of Jordan to militarily attack Syria and/or Lebanon and/or any other anti-jewish factions or perpetrators, where ever they may be. Some here and elsewhere were skeptical.

The reasoning was simple: the prevailing winds blowing through Israel would carry and dump any radioactive fallout and spread the chemical gasses and germs into Jordan, killing Jordanians. Now comes another warning from The King of Jordan:

"Jordan King warns Syria on the brink of civil war" - Drudge link to Yahoo News / Canada

"The King of Jordan warned Wednesday that his northern neighbor Syria was on the brink of all-out civil war and that in a worst-case scenario, chemical weapons could fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda.

King Abdullah II told CNN a bomb attack that killed core members of the Syrian regime was a "tremendous blow" to President Bashar al-Assad but not yet the death knell for a regime that remains determined to cling to power.

"In other words, it's getting very, very messy to a point where I think the worst-case scenario for all of us in the region is when you get full-out civil war. There is no coming back from the abyss," he said.

Earlier, a bomb attack in Damascus killed key Syrian officials, including Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat and General Hassan Turkmani, head of the regime's crisis cell on the uprising.

"Definitely this shows some cracks in the system, but again, I don't think we should jump to any conclusion writing the regime off in the near future, Abdullah said, while warning time was running out for a political solution.

"I think as we continue to pursue the political option, the realities on the ground may have overtaken us. Therefore I think the clock is ticking," he said.

"I think we should continue to give politics its due. But if we haven't already passed that window, I think we're getting very close to it.

"If it breaks down, if civil order breaks down to the point of no return, then it will take years to fix Syria. And I have a feeling we're seeing signs of that over the past three weeks," he warned.

"The only people that can bring us back from that brink are obviously the president and the regime. And I believe this is the last chance they have," he said. "This is a situation that is rapidly spinning out of control."

Asked about reports that Syrian forces have begun moving chemical weapons stocks, Abdullah said he was concerned that in the event of a descent into all-out war, the arms could fall into extremist hands.

"Our information is that there is a presence of Al-Qaeda in certain regions inside Syria, and has been there for a while," he told CNN.

"And, again, one of the worst-case scenarios as we are obviously trying to look for a political solution would be if some of those chemical stockpiles were to fall into unfriendly hands," he warned.

Abdullah opposes international military action in Syria, but he said that if Assad were to make the "tremendous miscalculation" of turning chemical weapons on his own population, there could probably be a response.

And he said that if such weapons were to fall into the hands of rebel forces -- some of which he said are unknown quantities -- then even reluctant UN members like Russia might support some kind of international action.

But he said he remains hesitant to arm the Syrian opposition.

"As it comes to chemical weapons falling into rebel hands, I think at the end of the day all of us would suffer from that. I'm sure they would be very accepting of international actions," he said of Russia.

"But we want to make sure if you're going to send weapons, specifically weapons, we want to make sure it goes into the right hands and doesn't end up as I alluded to earlier on in the hands of groups like Al-Qaeda."

The United States also expressed concern about Assad's chemical stockpile, warning that any official involved in its use would face the consequences, and adding they had seen no sign of the regime losing control of them."

-----

This is even more serious. Crazed clueless camel jockeys with chemical weapons would not hesitate ... and neither will The King ... and neither should Israel.

[David]

Listening to BiBi Netanyahu on FOX News. I believe he thinks Obama is OK with Iranian nukes.

[Mad_Dog]

Who doesn't think Obama is OK with a nuclear Iran?

[FastEddy]

" Syria says will use chemical weapons if attacked " - Drudge Link

This is Syria's "official" response to The King's statements above.

[David]

Red Alert Politics ‏@RedAlert

Romney says Israel, US ‘bound together,’ in Jerusalem speech

[Rifleman]

Leon Panneta was saying something similar about using any option to prevent Iran from getting nukes, 9and the fact that is was right after Romney visited I'm sure was only a coincidence. But it is an election year, and this is gving American Jews an excuse t vote for Obama.

[FastEddy]

"Syria premier defects..." to Jordan : By Khaled Yacoub Oweis - Reuters - Aug 6, 2012

This shows how complicated the Syrian / Jordanian relationship is. ... It is almost an appeasement of The King to have the second highest ranking Syrian g'ment official come over to His side. This is almost a "trade" or political kow-tawing to The King as if the Syrian g'ment is saying: "we are losing it ..." but we don't want our neighbors to interfere or mis-understand, but we do want Jordan to remain on our side ...

Advise to Syria watchers: look for a sure sign of the end of Assad when the Muslim Bro'hood sends "ambassadors" to Jordan.

Of interest (IMOP): If Assad is killed, the Prime Minister becomes the figure head at the top of the Syrian military, all of it. And since Assad is not about to "fall on his own sword" ...

Neither Jordan nor the Syrian military wants Iran to jump into the coming power vacuum in Syria, so this would leave the back door open for The King of Jordan to temporarily or permanently control the Syrian military or at least strongly influence such.

Also of interest (IMOP): Saudi Arabia is a behind the scenes player in this. Just as The King and Queen of Jordan wants the oil pipelines, the beach front access and the tourist trade (through southern Lebanon and western Syria), Saudi Arabia would be desirous of a preemptive block of Iran's past influence in the entire arena ... and are and would continue to finance Jordanian influence in Syria ... After all, it is their turf.

[David]

The strike is coming soon. Israel saying talks have stalled and have failed. A window of two months to strike.

[schaabdl]

May they wait until after Nov 6!

[FastEddy]

I doubt that will wait for November ... A better target date would be about mid-September so that all of the world's politicos can "weigh in", chose sides and show their real colors long enough before any national elections ... and either gain or lose elections, depending ...

[Rifleman]

I'm not so sure an Israeli attack on Iran can be "managed", although some politicians might believe so. The world is one big Muslim appeasment machine and Obama is part of it. Much of the Arab World will cheer the attack, though not publically.

Meanwhile Obama while pretending to be in step with Israel, has been undermining them his entire term. The very first major iem If you recall, was to try to put Israel's nuclear arsenal under international control. (It is estimated that teh Israel Nuclear arsenal consists of some 200 devices, from Tactical size to large thermonuclear devices of some 200 megatons, as well as bombs missles, shells and sublaunched missles.)

And to what extent the pending Israeli attack will be, is also speculation. Much of Iran's nuclear program is hardened, meaning conventional attacks will not be so effective. Perhaps, instead, light nuclkear targets and Iran's vulnerable oil industry would be destoyed instead. The past attack on the Iraqi nuclear plant obviously alos intended to make weapons, was made right before the fuel rods started to arrive so the danger of massive contamination was avoided. Not this time. Even a successful conventional attack would cause the release of nuclear material.

So,I'm apt to believe, that the Israeli attack MAY include nuclear weapons, and if it does, there will be serious blustering, feigned outrage, and condemnation, simply because the idea of a limited nuclear strike has been claimed by the left to be an impossibility. GW Bush allowed the developement and research on small nuclear "bunker buster" bombs, just as a matter of practicality, and if you recall, John Kerry went ballistic.

[David]

Israeli minister warns of 30-day war with Iran
A strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would spark a 30-day war with missile attacks on Israel's cities and as many as 500 dead, according to the Israeli minister responsible for preparing home defences.

SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Originally Posted by David

Israeli minister warns of 30-day war with Iran
A strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would spark a 30-day war with missile attacks on Israel's cities and as many as 500 dead, according to the Israeli minister responsible for preparing home defences.

SOURCE

The Minister is assuming that the Iranian missiles will all work, which is doubtful.

Israeli Military plans are of course top secret. Speculation is that they would use two initial waves of stealthy fighter/bombers: to take out the command and control of Iran's offense and defense missile capability, first, then a wave of the "bunker busters" for the nuke bomb/missile making factories. It is the potential losses of these fighter/bombers that is most worrisome for the Israeli Military, as any significant loss of this force might leave their homeland less well defended.

(A first sign of impending action would be news of cyber hacking activity against Iranian military and telephone systems.)

The one single goal of the Israeli Military is to kill as few civilians as possible on any front, at home or in Iran. There was once plans to "warn" the Iranian populace of these possible/impending Israeli raids, but the Iranian propaganda machine has cranked the rhetoric to the extreme and one wonders if the Iranian populace would take heed. (Reference: Caleb Carr's fine book: "The Lessons of Terror: A History of Warfare Against Civilians".)

[FastEddy]

From Two Years ago:

"Obama has made Netanyahu an offer he can't refuse"
"What benefits Israeli security more - a few more trailers on some hilltops or doubling the number of advanced fighters in its inventory?"
By Amos Harel - Nov.15, 2010 - Haaretz News

"The list of defense-related and other gifts the U.S. administration is willing to offer to Israel in exchange for three months of construction freeze in the settlements raises suspicions that someone has gone mad. An additional extension of the freeze, which he has previously rejected out of hand, may spell a political and ideological headache for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - but the offer by U.S. President Barack Obama is very enticing. The addition of 20 F-35s to the package discussed two months ago tips the balance very clearly. From Israel's point of view, it is an offer that cannot be refused.

Since Obama entered the White House two years ago, he has not given the impression - at least in terms of foreign relations - of being a particularly tough negotiator. Nonetheless, this time the administration appears to have gone overboard, even though in Washington they know full well that the freeze is a highly symbolic gesture, which the settlers have already managed to avoid in the past.

This, of course, raises suspicions that there are much broader and substantive issues at hand, and not merely a few housing units in Samaria or Gush Etzion. Not only may there be a genuine Israeli willingness to move forward in a substantive way in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, but perhaps some sort of deal on the Iranian question is afoot. Could it be - and this is only conjecture - that Obama is trying to persuade Israel to commit to desisting from any independent action against the nuclear installations of Iran, in exchange for a substantial future reinforcement of the Israel Air Force?

The F-35 deal signed last month [Oct. 2010] was controversial in both defense establishment and political circles. The debate did not stem from the quality of the stealth aircraft, but from the price tag accompanying it: Generals and minister believed that when the price per unit is more than $130 million, there are better ways to make use of the U.S. military aid package. But, according to the prime minister, the U.S. is now generously offering to double the number of aircraft without the funding for them being taken from the future military aid package.

This is an enormous gift, which nearly makes the debate on the need for the F-35 redundant. According to reports, there will also be significant benefits elsewhere in the gift list for Israel.

In spite a great deal of bad mouthing about him, the U.S. president has proven no less committed to Israel's security than his predecessor [even though this is more Hillary's doing]. To date the security package has included emergency stores that are available to the Israel Defense Forces, a $205-million grant to purchase Iron Dome systems, and a significant stepping-up of joint missile defense training programs. The list of items to come, at least on paper, is impressive.

"The Americans have put forth an excellent proposal. It will be a big mistake not to take it," a senior defense source told Haaretz last night, adding that "the prime minister has made impressive gains. If we do not implement this deal, we will suffer in terms of defense."

Obama is essentially spotlighting a debate that has been going on since the settlements began - namely, whether they contribute to or undermine Israel's security. The U.S. president is now asking: What benefits Israeli security more - a few more trailers on some hilltops or doubling the number of advanced fighters in its inventory?"

A few of these birds are coming on line in Israel, just about now ... And with Obama caused inflation, the price is now right ... And guess who are the best fighter jocks in the world?

[Mad_Dog]

Israel's only deadline is Iran's nuclear bomb fabrication facilities, in destroying them before they come online. But what about Iran? They have a deadline as well, of sorts. If it becomes obvious that Obama will lose come November, might Iran and it's cohorts attack Israel?

Egypt is no longer stable, being run by Islamic fundamentalists, and has a large, modern army. There's nothing like external wars to suppress internal wars, so Syria might be willing. Or if Iran has already acquired nuclear devices from former Soviet client states, or possibly N. Korea, does anyone doubt they would be used against the Jews?

I doubt the odds are very high for anything to happen, but it is certain that Israel faces it's greatest threat of an attack by it's neighbors since when... 1973? And if Israel is attacked, I'd bet the only response from Obama would be to laugh.

[FastEddy]

Originally Posted by Mad_Dog

Israel's only deadline is Iran's nuclear bomb fabrication facilities, in destroying them before they come online. But what about Iran? They have a deadline as well, of sorts. If it becomes obvious that Obama will lose come November, might Iran and it's cohorts attack Israel?

Egypt is no longer stable, being run by Islamic fundamentalists, and has a large, modern army. There's nothing like external wars to suppress internal wars, so Syria might be willing. Or if Iran has already acquired nuclear devices from former Soviet client states, or possibly N. Korea, does anyone doubt they would be used against the Jews?

The Egyptian Military is made up of multiple faiths, Muslims of several sects, Christians of varied beliefs and even a very few Jews. That's the reason for all that stink and killing in the desert = "fundamentalist, extremist" militants attacking Egyptian soldiers in the Sinai. Those militant fools want to smuggle arms into Gaza to try to kill more Israelis. The newly installed Egyptian President is supposed to be visiting Iran this week, probably to smooth the waters as He can ... the Islamic Brotherhood is making too many waves in Egypt to muster any Egyptian support for any kind of overt war against Israel of any type. (I'm sure the Eg-Prez doesn't want the boat rocked just yet as He might lose hugely any gains He may be making within the military and the populace.)

I doubt the odds are very high for anything to happen, but it is certain that Israel faces it's greatest threat of an attack by it's neighbors since when... 1973? And if Israel is attacked, I'd bet the only response from Obama would be to laugh.

Mmmmm ... Maybe the greatest threat since the Egyptian Pharaoh chased Moses and Company into the desert. ... And the only response from Jewish voters here should and will be to vote against the demofascists ... Oh Bummer.

IMOP the Jews can't win the political / propaganda / terrorist gorilla war games against the fundy extremists, so they might as well dance ...

[David]

Netanyahu ‘determined to attack Iran’ before US elections, claims Israel’s Channel 10
TV reporter adds: ‘I doubt Obama could say anything that would convince PM to delay a possible attack’

SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Attack now and the troubles remain in the middle east. Attack after the election and Romney / Ryan will have to deal with it = egg on lots of faces and possible US military involvement required. Defend against a solidified Muslim world in two years and the conflict could include the entire Muslim world from Morocco to Pakistan and possibly into Indonesia ... and involve everyone on the planet.

I view a pre-emptive strike by Israel now as potentially saving the lives on millions of Christians, Muslims and Jews, later. (No, I'm not jewish, I'm Black-Irish.)

[David]

Obama let's Israel down again. Disgrace

Exclusive: U.S. Scales-Back Military Exercise with Israel, Affecting Potential Iran Strike
A smaller U.S. contingent may make it more difficult for the Israeli government to launch a pre-emptive strike on Tehran's nuclear program.

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/08/31/exc...#ixzz25H4F51L9