Presidential Campaign Polls

[David]

weeklystandard ‏@weeklystandard

Ryan Favorability in Ohio: 51 Percent: According to a poll from Rasmussen,

[jtdc]

Originally Posted by David

Ryan Bounce: Romney Up Two in Gallup Poll: Today, Gallup's daily tracking poll showed Romney moving into a two-point lead in national polling.

Yeah, but that's a "bounce". Wait until Obama announces his running mate...

[David]

Ohio (Rasmussen): Obama 45%, Romney 45%

[Fai Mao]

Originally Posted by jtdc

Yeah, but that's a "bounce". Wait until Obama announces his running mate...

I wonder what the chances are of dumping Biden? I doubt that Satan's Prom Queen (Hillary Clinton) would play number 2 fiddle to Obama.

Obama /Jarrett
Obama/Sharpton
Obama/Dictators don't need Veeps

[David]

A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him

[Mad_Dog]

Originally Posted by David

A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him

Odd. Ron Paul backers?

[schaabdl]

But youth are not known as voters - 2008 was an anomaly over the years
However, here is with some interesting news for the president - he leads among non-voters
SOURCE
Now what is the bribe to change these to voters?

[David]

Big News

Poll: Romney-Ryan Leads In VA, OH, FL

SOURCE

[schaabdl]

Purple Strategies is fairly new - I haven't found out the demographics by parties on this group and given that the choice of Ryan was just made, these numbers are encouraging, especially FL as the DIMS were in glee and yet only a 2 point move. This also doesn't capture much of the rhetoric since Saturday so bounce has probably not materialized. With their September polling, we might have a better idea.
***
Don't let Bemused read the report - Sarah out polled Ryan on the favorability scale of GOP

[schaabdl]

Playing with the Rasmussen numbers only and the EC numbers
Current: Obama 247, Romney 206, Toss Up 85
Toss up scenarios (assign to Obama or Romney)
States: CO, FL, IA, OH, VA, WI
Current Polling: Obama 260 Romney 278 - regardless of polling percentage (identical to Obama <= 47% at this time) - Obama only leads in VA
Obama < 50%: Obama 207 Romney 331
***
Romney currently holds all the states won by McCain and picks up IN and NC. The toss up states were all won by Obama in 2008. Wisconsin moved to the Romney column with him edging Obama from my last review. It appears Rasmussen defines
Toss Up - even to 3 percentage points ahead
Leans - 4 to 6
Likely - 7 to 9
Safe - > 9
SOURCE

[David]

Originally Posted by schaabdl

Playing with the Rasmussen numbers only and the EC numbers
Current: Obama 247, Romney 206, Toss Up 85
Toss up scenarios (assign to Obama or Romney)
States: CO, FL, IA, OH, VA, WI
Current Polling: Obama 260 Romney 278 - regardless of polling percentage (identical to Obama <= 47% at this time) - Obama only leads in VA
Obama < 50%: Obama 207 Romney 331
***
Romney currently holds all the states won by McCain and picks up IN and NC. The toss up states were all won by Obama in 2008. Wisconsin moved to the Romney column with him edging Obama from my last review. It appears Rasmussen defines
Toss Up - even to 3 percentage points ahead
Leans - 4 to 6
Likely - 7 to 9
Safe - > 9
SOURCE

Bret Baier ‏@BretBaier

RT @RasmussenPoll #Wisconsin: #Romney 48%, #Obama 47%...

[David]

NY Times

Few Voters Are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests
By REBECCA BERG 12:55 PM ET

Nationally, the share of voters who could decide the election is likely between just 3 percent and 5 percent, polling experts say.

[David]

LAMBRO: Romney polls overtake Obama
President’s approval plummeting

SOURCE

[schaabdl]

Originally Posted by David

LAMBRO: Romney polls overtake Obama
President’s approval plummeting

SOURCE

Any wonder why I haven't joined the GOP hand-wringing. The disapproval numbers from overall to specific issues solidly points to a change in direction. The demographics in the polling seem to be too much in line with 2008 results and discount 2010 as an anomaly. And like 2010, probably missing the "enthusiasm" of one side versus the other. These numbers are moving per-convention and which convention will generate more noise and have a focus on issues versus attack?
***
Polling is still suggesting a bit more undecided than recent news of only 3-5%. Still looking in the 7-9% on a state-by-state basis with swing states at higher end (10% in OH).

[David]

RT @gallupnews #Obama Job Approval: Approve 44% (-) Disapprove 50%

[David]

Robert C. O'Brien ‏@robertcobrien

TIME: Swing state poll: After picking @RyanVP, .@MittRomney now leads #Obama in Ohio, Virginia & Florida

[schaabdl]

And it is still pre-convention. I believe both Romney and Ryan will do well with their presentations. The disapproval numbers on issues will be hard to overcome - heard it best today - OK, we tried you and it hasn't worked, time to move on.

[David]

GALLUP:

ROMNEY 47%
OBAMA 45%

[David]

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato

2012 not a year for poll bounces, VP or convention. Low % undecideds, voters dug in.

[schaabdl]

I think Sabato is wishing - note most of Rasmussen state polls are still showing 8-10% difference from a full 100% - these are undecided. The bounces will happen and this will be a a turn-out / enthusiasm election, much like 2010. The polls leading to 2010 were way off base with virtually none showing the results of the election.