Has Housing Bottomed out?

[luknikfan]

Originally Posted by FastEddy

Bought one in North California ... cleared escrow this week.

We are planning to buy another this quarter, possible in Arizona (snow bird retreat) or Wyoming (g'ment melt down retreat). ... Zillow.com has listings in Phoenix area (town of Goodyear, town of Maricopa, etc.) = repos from ~$50K for 3 bed/2 bath w/garage ... some on golf courses.

We figure with inflation heading up, bank rates flat at just under 5%, prices still dropping a bit ... the time to strike a bargain is now.

We also believe that buying a house now is a long term investment and hedge against inflation with at least a 5 year time line ... Real inflation is running about 10% to 15% per year (based on commodities prices). All inflation is caused by government.

I generally agree with you here.

My only disagreement might be buying specifically in Arizona.

One key is buying in a state with no income taxes if you plan on living there part-time at least. Actually 6 months and a day to qualify as a resident.

That is why we bought in Vancouver across the river from Portland and not in Portland itself.

Real estate is near a bottom most likely and interest rates, though up, still historically low. In the 15 months since I purchased the Vancouver property that price is flat. However, it's churning out about 26K in rental income. If that money was in the bank it would have coughed up only $1200 or so in interest last year.

A home for 50K in Phoenix (aside from my reservations about buying in Arizona) basically could hardly be built again for that price.

As I've been saying there are great deals out there and especially so for folks looking for a second/retirement home.

It's only a matter of time before inflation kicks in. Even if it is moderate inflation - 4% say - it will eat up the dollar's buying power quicker than you think.

Plus there is the threat of the dollar losing it's reserve currency status. That would trigger a surge in commodity/real estate prices in terms of their dollar cost.

I have many friends who are hunkered down in pretty much all cash and that is unwise and longterm it's very dangerous. Especially if one is planning to live off that cash.

Real estate will be one of the effective protections from the coming inflation and the potential loss of reserve status for the US dollar.

Good luck with the properties. I'm planning on buying another in Washington state (further north from Vancouver) this spring. Sort of a place to get away to if there is a right-wing coup/government take over. You gotta cover all bases.

[David]

A Great Depression for Housing


SOURCE

[David]

Over 1 million Americans seen losing homes in 2011

SOURCE

[David]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Housing typically leads economic recoveries, but this time around it’s slowing the economic recovery.

SOURCE

[David]

The Allure of Real Estate

With an unemployment rate above 9 percent, not to mention the current rate of underemployment, the US economy is not positioned to create significant job growth. The small business man, the main engine of job growth, is still financially strapped and unable to expand and create value. Unless this situation is altered, there will be no significant growth in real-estate assets. This is not rocket science.

SOURCE

[David]

Barely out of the cellar
Commentary: Housing sector remains embattled


SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Originally Posted by luknikfan

I generally agree with you here. My only disagreement might be buying specifically in Arizona. One key is buying in a state with no income taxes if you plan on living there part-time at least. Actually 6 months and a day to qualify as a resident. ... A home for 50K in Phoenix (aside from my reservations about buying in Arizona) basically could hardly be built again for that price. As I've been saying there are great deals out there and especially so for folks looking for a second/retirement home. ...

Rural Phoenix Arizona = Warm in winter, lots of genav airstrips, water table rising, cheap food, property tax assessments / rates low, easy to optimize capital gains and income v. taxes, the blood in the streets is almost dry ...

... It's only a matter of time before inflation kicks in. ...Plus there is the threat of the dollar losing it's reserve currency status. That would trigger a surge in commodity/real estate prices in terms of their dollar cost. I have many friends who are hunkered down in pretty much all cash and that is unwise and longterm it's very dangerous. Especially if one is planning to live off that cash.

Real estate will be one of the effective protections from the coming inflation and the potential loss of reserve status for the US dollar. ...

All inflation is caused by government. Government prints it and government can too easily print too much.

A regular examination of David's links just above is the best indication of Real Inflation ... or just go out and buy a tank of gas ...

Yes, with a very longer time horizon, real estate is a good investment (finally), even at 4 3/4% for 30 years. Real inflation will easily exceed that this year, maybe extending into next year.

To complicate the situation, the US fed & treasury are playing the gold markets, playing the bond markets and playing right into Soros' greedy hands. This is how Soros made most of his money: currency trades = buying currencies that are solid and borrowing (selling) currencies that are cheap, inflating. This time he is buying gold and shorting US bucks and bonds. George Soros uses media and stupid socialist efforts to get richer, period. George Soros intends to corner all currencies ... because he can ... if the lame dupes of socialism let him.

[David]

By Alex Veiga, AP Real Estate Writer
LOS ANGELES — Home prices were falling across most of America's largest cities in November, and average prices in eight major markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday fell 1% in November from October. All but one city, San Diego, recorded monthly price declines. San Diego prices rose 0.1%.

[David]

Price Drop Points to Likely Double Dip in Housing Market

SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Originally Posted by David

... Home prices were falling across most of America's largest cities in November ... The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday fell 1% in November from October. All but one city, San Diego, recorded monthly price declines. San Diego prices rose 0.1%.

Watching the weekly and monthly ups and downs of these market numbers is a real waste of time.

* Housing prices may return to 2005 levels by 2015 ...
* Housing sales may return to 2005 levels by 2020 ...
* New Housing starts may return to 2005 levels by 2030 ...
* The "Progressives" in power do not have any respect for personal property rights, so until the country reverts back toward real capitalist philosophy, housing as a short term value investment is not viable ... figure at least until late 2012 before home ownership becomes desirable again.

If you don't stop it you will go blind ... blind to the very slow movement of the citizenry back to work, back to savings, back to home purchases.

With a decade or more before housing really, really, really returns to a boom market, if you are in real estate, get a real job in the mean time.

[David]

New-home sales end ugly year with Dec. gain
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics
Share
WASHINGTON — Buyers purchased the fewest new homes last year on records going back 47 years.

[David]

Foreclosure activity up across most US metro areas

Jan 27, 7:16 AM (ET)

By ALEX VEIGA



LOS ANGELES (AP) - The foreclosure crisis is getting worse as high unemployment and lackluster job prospects force homeowners in an increasing number of U.S. metropolitan areas into dire financial straits.
In Seattle, Houston and Chicago, cities that were relatively insulated from foreclosures early on in the housing bust, a growing number of homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and finding themselves on the receiving end of foreclosure warnings. Others have already seen their homes repossessed by lenders.
All told, foreclosure activity jumped in 149 of the country's 206 largest metropolitan areas last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.
The firm tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions - warnings that can lead up to a home eventually being lost to foreclosure.
Job loss, rather than time-bomb mortgages resetting to higher payments, has become the main driver behind rising foreclosures.
"We've actually had a sea change in what's causing foreclosures, from the overheated home prices and bad loans to a second wave of foreclosures actually caused by unemployment and economic displacement," says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.
The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metropolitan area in Texas saw its foreclosure rate jump 26 percent from 2009, the largest increase among the top 20 biggest metro areas, the firm said.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, in Washington, ranked second with an increase of nearly 23 percent, while the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta metro area in Georgia was third with a 21 percent bump.
In the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet metropolitan area, foreclosure activity rose 16 percent, while home repossessions climbed nearly 20 percent, RealtyTrac said.
"As the economy and unemployment improve, you'll see those markets recover fairly quickly, whereas you're still going to have a bit of a hangover in places like California, Florida and Nevada," Sharga said.
Those states, and Arizona, remain the country's foreclosure hotbeds, accounting for 19 of the top 20 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates in 2010.
Still, foreclosure activity in many of the metro areas in these states actually declined last year.
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., registered the highest foreclosure rate in the nation, with one in every nine households receiving a foreclosure-related notice in 2010 - nearly five times the national average. But the metropolitan area's foreclosure activity fell 7 percent from the prior year.
Three California metro areas posted among the biggest annual drops in foreclosure activity: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, down 20 percent; San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, down 17 percent; and, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, down 16 percent.
A big reason for the decline is lenders took steps to delay foreclosure actions in these states as they sought to manage the flow of troubled properties coming onto their books. In the final months of last year, several lenders went further, temporarily halting foreclosure activity to deal with allegations of improper evictions.
Most banks have since resumed taking action against borrowers behind in payments, however, and the pace of foreclosures is expected to pick up this year and ultimately outpace 2010 levels.
"We believe we're going to see an abnormally high growth of foreclosure activity in the first quarter and we do expect that 2011 will be another record year for foreclosure activity and bank repossessions," Sharga said, adding he projects bank repossessions will rise by at least 20 percent.
That's likely to drag down home values further, potentially pushing more homeowners into negative equity - when a borrower owes more on their mortgage than the market value of their home.
About 2.4 million U.S. homeowners have only 5 percent or less equity in their homes, according to data from CoreLogic.
Lenders took back 1 million properties in 2010, and no metro area saw more homes repossessed by lenders than Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale in Arizona.
Some 55,372 properties were taken back by lenders there last year, up 17 percent from the year before.
The Chicago metro area was second, followed by the Detroit-Warren-Livonia metro area in Michigan. Its home repossessions rose 19 percent.

[David]

Nearly 11 Percent of US Houses Empty

SOURCE

[David]

A rising number of foreclosures, tied to persistently high unemployment, is smothering housing's rebound. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are already 4.5 million homes in some stage of foreclosure. Some experts believe an additional 1.5 million may be added to the pile this year. With that kind of distressed inventory on the market, it could take four to five years for prices to come back up, according to Capital Economics senior U.S. economist Paul Dales.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...#ixzz1D2e7NLSd

[David]

Empty houses: The ownership society Is over
By Diana Olick, CNBCPosted 1h 5m ago | 18 | 1

Following up on my previous post on the latest homeowner vacancy report, I wanted to point out a significant shift in the makeup of not just how, but where we live.

SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Rents v. buying: Rural Bay Area and the Wine Country (north and east of the GG bridge) renting costs about $1 per square foot per month. According to CNBC article / slide show above: San Francisco = more than $3 per square foot, Ft. Worth = about $.75 per square foot, New York = more than $4 per square foot.

[David]

Dallas-Fort Worth home sales suffered an eighth straight month of year-over-year declines in January.

SOURCE

[David]

For home sellers in Dallas-Fort Worth, it’s getting tougher

SOURCE

[FastEddy]

Nice house, nice neighborhood, nice schools that teach = Sold!

Nice house, nice neighborhood, dumbed down schools that teach socialism, arabic, etc. = No Sale!

[David]

Decline in real estate sales greater than stated?

Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing home by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.

SOURCE