Palin in 2012

[David]

If she runs she will be the favorite. Period. What I'm waiting to see is her approval ratings with independent voters. This book tour is helping her. The Oprah interview and Barbara Walters help her. 61% of all Americans say Palin has gotten a raw deal from the MSM.

Iowa, as most of you know, has an exaggerated role in the nominating process. However, Palin will get a big boost in Iowa caucuses if she chooses to run. It is a perfect state for Palin to succeed in. Her challenge will come from the Huckster if he runs. New Hampshire problematic. Romney next door.

Iowa Poll: Palin A "Credible Candidate" In Caucus State
Posted by Mike Memoli

A new Iowa Poll finds that Sarah Palin has a 68 percent favorable rating among Iowa Republicans, "making her a credible candidate for the 2012 caucuses should she decide to run for president," the Des Moines Register finds.

But Palin doesn't score as well as Mike Huckabee, who has a 70 percent favorable rating and is viewed unfavorably by just 12 percent of Iowa Republicans. Palin's unfav number is double that -- 24.

Among Iowa voters overall you see why Palin is such a lightning rod, as she is the only potential Republican candidate with a net-negative favorable rating. And 30 percent view her very unfavorably, compared to 12 percent who view her very favorably.

Favorable Ratings
Huckabee 53 / 22
Palin 37 / 50
Gingrich 42 / 36
Romney 40 / 31
Pawlenty 17 / 10
Jindal 16 / 10
Pataki 16 / 14

The Iowa Poll was conducted for the Register by Selzer & Co. among 800 Iowa voters from November 8-11, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

SOURCE

[David]

This will make the libs crazy.

Sarah Palin vs. Barack Obama: The approval gap silently shrinks to a few points

SOURCE

[dcannady]

Huckabee is just itching for the opportunity to get to Washington so he can sell us out. He is a government guy, big on social issues and big on expanding the government. He is a multi-mouth speaker.

[David]

Can you imagine the lib reaction to this column?

Yes, she can: Palin has a shot at the presidency

By Matthew Dowd
Tuesday, November 24, 2009

President Sarah Palin. To many pundits and late-night comedians, this sounds like a punch line, and to many die-hard Democrats it sounds like a reason to leave the country.

Yet while the conventional wisdom has it that Palin is too badly damaged to make a serious run in 2012 -- and I agree that her success is not probable -- it is definitely a possibility that Palin could be elected president of the United States.

Those having concerns about my objectivity or wondering whether I am a "Palinista" should keep in mind that I raised serious questions about her qualifications last fall -- doubts I still have -- and that I predicted John McCain would look back at his vice presidential pick with remorse.

Looking ahead to the political landscape of the 2012 presidential election, there are certain elements to keep in mind, assuming that President Obama runs for reelection.

First, Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no president with an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and no president with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection. (George W. Bush's approval rating in the weeks before the 2004 election hovered around 50 percent.) The 2012 election will be primarily about our current president and whether voters are satisfied with the country's direction.

Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications and abilities, will matter only if Obama's approval rating is between 47 and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in the latest Gallup poll Obama's approval rating was at a precarious 49 percent.

Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided and polarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats love Obama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap between Obama's approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly 70 percentage points -- a higher partisan divide than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama's agenda and actions this year, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.

Polls show that Palin's favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.

While today I would not support a Palin candidacy, here are five suggestions that would go a long way toward winning her more converts:

-- Quality over quantity. You don't need to "tweet" quite so much. You don't need to be at countless rallies and photo ops. Instead, seek out substantive platforms where you can relate to people in a thoughtful, measured way. Appear on Sunday shows every now and then, sit down with Charlie Rose and editorial boards, and give serious speeches on your approach to the world in the 21st century.

-- Hope and fear. To be elected president, a candidate has to understand voters' fears but appeal to their hopes. Ronald Reagan (and Bill Clinton) knew this very well. To do this more comprehensively, I would suggest traveling more to better get a handle on where the voters are on topics related to finances, faith, race, etc. Get out of the bubble of high-profile events. Go to the inner cities, the suburbs and small towns where folks are trying to live their lives through great anxiety. And don't go to talk about yourself, but to listen to others.

-- Reagan is the past. While Reagan is a beloved president who did much for this country, folks want to look to the future and believe in a new brand of leader. Espousing the values Reagan spoke to and represented is fine, but you need to be yourself, not an acolyte for a president who is now in the history books.

-- Use humor. In responding to controversy, bad press and negative occurrences in general, learn to let it slide off of you with a knowing smile. Maybe even use some self-deprecation. Levi Johnston, your almost son-in-law, has been a thorn in your side. Let it go. Publicly sparring with a teenager is not presidential. Don't be afraid to make fun of yourself. Voters like candidates who know that they aren't perfect and can laugh at themselves.

-- Think accountability. Yes, bad things happen to good people, and it isn't fair. But voters don't want to hear all the excuses of why an interview didn't go well or which other person was responsible for a bad decision. Americans want presidents who accept blame when things go wrong. They are tired of their leaders and institutions not admitting mistakes, learning from errors and making improvements.

Like it or not, if Sarah Palin decides to seek our nation's highest office, she has a shot. The probability of her success depends on her ability, and that of President Obama, to admit and learn from their mistakes as we head into 2012.

The writer, a political analyst for ABC News, was the chief strategist for George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign.

SOURCE

[schaabdl]

Someone is advising Sarah Palin well at this time. She is selling her book; saying the right things; and as my wife noted while viewing her interview with Hannity - she speaks in terms that everyone can understand but adds something missing from most political speech - a concrete approach to solutions. Far too many candidates come across with promises but without solutions. VP Biden can attempt to make fun of "drill, baby, drill" but people understand that drilling is how you get the oil out of the ground and everything else is obstruction.
***
I'm looking at the crowds - camping out the night before to simply get a signed book! If she was irrelevant, this wouldn't happen. Let see what's happen during the 2010 election cycle and how her candidate selections do before given thought to 2012.

[FoundingFather]

Originally Posted by schaabdl

Someone is advising Sarah Palin well at this time. She is selling her book; saying the right things; and as my wife noted while viewing her interview with Hannity - she speaks in terms that everyone can understand but adds something missing from most political speech - a concrete approach to solutions. Far too many candidates come across with promises but without solutions. VP Biden can attempt to make fun of "drill, baby, drill" but people understand that drilling is how you get the oil out of the ground and everything else is obstruction.
***
I'm looking at the crowds - camping out the night before to simply get a signed book! If she was irrelevant, this wouldn't happen. Let see what's happen during the 2010 election cycle and how her candidate selections do before given thought to 2012.

Naturally, my liberal "acquaintances" posted a YouTube showing some young guy interviewing various people in the crowd waiting to see Sarah. Of course, they found the dumbest ones they could in order to demonstrate that "all people who like Sarah Palin are stupid".

So, I just posted equally stupid sounding Obama supporters being interviewed. No comment. Changed the subject quickly.

[Hawkscall]

I think what she is doing right now, and something she does very well, is waking people up to what is going on in our government and country now. I think she wants to energize the conservative voters, get them out, pay attention, change what is going on. She's brave, something you don't see in most politicians.

C

[schaabdl]

Not only brave but she also has very little risk - if this fall flats in 2010 and beyond , who cares. The savvy move on either her part or someone behind the scene is a marvel to behold at this time.

[Hawkscall]

I think there is great personal risk. I will bet she and her family are getting threats. The hatred is deep enough and nasty enough for that to happen.

C

[schaabdl]

Anyone in a public life get personal threats (if you heard of the soccer issue with France-Ireland last week, the referee involved has reported threats against his family!). I remember minor threats to do property damage to my home while I was a mayor because of police car issue and supposedly I was going to benefit. The risk I was speaking of concerns political risk - she can ride off with the money regardless of the future and never be heard from again or she can become very successful in the political world. It is appearing to be closer to the latter but the measurement will be 2010 and 2012 - will we still be talking about her or someone else?
***
Saw a bit someone else that mentioned a ticket possibility that I know I referenced before - Palin/Patreaus - both outside, both strong in opinion, both with high conservative credentials. The general is keeping a low profile but apparently has someone doing some sniffing.

[David]

Rasmussen

Voters who approve

Obama-49%
Palin-43%

[FoundingFather]

Originally Posted by David

Rasmussen

Voters who approve

Obama-49%
Palin-43%

Wow. I'm shocked that she's that high. Of course, I don't really know what "Approve" means in her case since she's not in office.

[Billy Hoyle]

I am thrilled that the conservative base is pushing palin to the front of the line. The best that can be hoped for is an embarrassing defeat and then a total over haul of the old guard repubs..

[Rifleman]

Billy Hoyle wrote: I am thrilled that the conservative base is pushing palin to the front of the line. The best that can be hoped for is an embarrassing defeat and then a total over haul of the old guard repubs..

Welcome Billy Hoyle!

Well let me ask, considering that the Nation's unemployment is running over 10% and still rising, and there are few if any predictions of a recovery soon, it is looking like a "cake walk" for Republicans in 2010 and 2012. Obviously, you don't like Palin, and "hope" for a defeat. And that is fine, you are entitled to your opinion, I am just interested in the rationale for your thinking. I can't imagine the ideas behind your statement, so please educate me.

Why do you assume that Palin would be embaressingly defeated?

Why do you assume that Palin would be a bad president? Even if you opposed Ronald Reagan, you have to admit he was a good president. On the same line, I oppose Clinton, but he was a better president than Bush Senior.

Who are the "old guard repubs"? And why do they need overhauled? As fas as I am concerned, the "old guard repubs" would be the ones that rode the Conservative wave with Reagan but continued to espouse the old "country Club" republican policies. They would also be the ones that led to the nomination and defeats of John McCain and Bob Dole.

[schaabdl]

Early but latest polls (Rasmussen) are within margin of error and the sitting president is sub-50 in just a year in office - polls of likely GOP vs. BHO. I am beginning to think that the best hope for the DIMS is that BHO pulls an LBJ, but then who do they run?

[David]

Going to discuss this today on KSFO.
Libs worried about Palin.

SOURCE

President Sarah Palin
James Joyner | Sunday, February 7, 2010

Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin addresses attendees at the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010. (AP Photo)
After watching her speech at the Tea Party convention, Andrew Sullivan thinks those of us who think Sarah Palin is unelectable as president of the United States should “think again.”

The media, too scared be tarred as elitists, will never demand policy specifics from her; there is a huge constituency out there (rightly) outraged by Washington corruption and she now has the critical mantle of the rogue outsider; she can channel Christianism and fuse it with the slogans of phony “fiscal conservatism”; she will blame every lost job on Obama; and she will accuse him of betraying the troops and befriending America’s enemies. Behind her are the Cheneyites.

Above all, she is capable of generating a personality cult – much, much more so than Obama, because she can harness Christianism to her divine destiny. The power of this kind of appeal – of a charismatic, beautiful woman, an icon of the pro-life cause, persecuted by the evil elites, demonized by libruls, and commanding the biggest military on earth – should not in my view be under-estimated.

Given that I never thought Bill Clinton or Barack Obama could get elected — because of personal sleaze and lack of experience, respectively — I could be wrong. Strong orators with an ability to generate mass enthusiasm can go a long way. Then again, at least Clinton and Obama demonstrably had well-above-average IQs and a wonkish love of public policy.

Still, I’m dubious of the idea that the media “will never demand policy specifics from her.” Thus far, at least, they’ve shown no such reluctance. Indeed, they’ve shown open disdain for Palin in a way they haven’t done for someone of her stature since Dan Quayle’s heyday.

Further, while Palin’s charismatic and attractive, her appeal seems to be quite limited. Last week’s CNN poll showed “43 percent of American have a favorable view of Palin, while 46 percent have an unfavorable view.” Such high negatives would seem to make a presidential bid difficult. Then again, “That’s up slightly from a 39-48 margin in early August.”

It’s worth noting, too, that Palin’s Tea Party pals, Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter, had dismal showings in the Republican primaries two years ago, earning roughly the same number of delegates as my dog, Molly.

Still, I’m surprised at the amount of steam that the Tea Party movement has maintained — even after some of its original instigators, such as the Red State gang — have jumped off the bandwagon. So maybe I’m underestimating the appeal of a genuine populist with Palin’s skills.

About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
Follow James on FriendFeed | Twitter | Digg

[FoundingFather]

As an aside, the libs are up in arms today because Palin had written four words on her hand to use as bullet points. They even made a YouTube about it. One says that we now have no reason to criticize Obama's use of the teleprompter. Huh?

When asked about her stance on the war on terror, she received a standing ovation for her rememberance of a line that Reagan used regarding his view on war: "We win, they lose".

[David]

Hatin on Sarah Palin on still another lib blog.

SOURCE

[David]

AP

Palin says 'absurd' not to ponder presidential bid
February 7, 2010 | 8:35 am

Sarah Palin says it would be “absurd” for her not to consider running for president in 2012.

The former Alaska governor and the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2008 says she will run for president if she believes it's right for the country and right for her family.

Palin was asked on “Fox News Sunday” if she knows more today about domestic and foreign affairs than she did two years ago. Her response: “Well, I would hope so.”

She said her focus has widened since she was governor of Alaska. Palin said she gets daily briefings by e-mail on domestic and foreign policy issues from advisors in Washington.

Palin appeared on “Fox News Sunday.” She is a paid contributor to Fox News.

-- Associated Press

[Irish flu]

Originally Posted by Hawkscall

I think there is great personal risk. I will bet she and her family are getting threats. The hatred is deep enough and nasty enough for that to happen.

Cry me a river. The Secret Service says that the O man is getting 4 times the threats that Bush did. Let's talk about hatred.