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  #21  
Old 01-17-2011, 3:29 PM
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Originally Posted by schaabdl View Post
An interesting compilation of presidential potentials. I hope that no one underestimates BHO - no matter how the conservatives feel about a particular candidate, it will be formidable job to overcome BHO (despite what we on the right see as glaring failures).
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Since both Christie and Jindal say that they are not ready to run, my money would be on Romney,Palin,Thune,Pence, and Daniels to fight it out. I just can't see Huckabee getting as many votes as last time, and the others don't do much for me.
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Old 01-17-2011, 3:59 PM
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What I actually find interesting about this list is the length of the bench on the GOP side - I would be hard pressed to come up with a similar list for the DIMS but that just may be because BHO is the president and the incumbent party just won't be that active unless things really go south.
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You left out one definitely running - Pawlentry. Thune and Pence will have troubles just out of a historical reference that representatives just don't have the recognition. I wish I could say the same about the Huckster but I do believe he is there and THAT may be the fly in the ointment that gives the GOP another murky candidate (Romney, Pawlentry and even Rudy may come to the fore) because the conservatives will knock themselves out of the running. Fortunately, the first round of primaries are proportionate distribution so the conservatives can stick around until the winner-take-all portion.
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  #23  
Old 01-17-2011, 4:58 PM
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What I actually find interesting about this list is the length of the bench on the GOP side - I would be hard pressed to come up with a similar list for the DIMS but that just may be because BHO is the president and the incumbent party just won't be that active unless things really go south.
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You left out one definitely running - Pawlentry. Thune and Pence will have troubles just out of a historical reference that representatives just don't have the recognition. I wish I could say the same about the Huckster but I do believe he is there and THAT may be the fly in the ointment that gives the GOP another murky candidate (Romney, Pawlentry and even Rudy may come to the fore) because the conservatives will knock themselves out of the running. Fortunately, the first round of primaries are proportionate distribution so the conservatives can stick around until the winner-take-all portion.
Yeah. Pawlenty.

Huckabee gave us McCain last time. If he were to screw it up again what would people say?

Too bad that a junior Senator like Obama could beat out someone like Pence.

I could actually deal with Rudy. Don't know how he would stack up against Obama, but I'd be willing to bet that the debates would be good theater.
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Old 01-17-2011, 9:28 PM
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GOP Presidential nominee will be a dark horse. So says pollster Scott Rasmussen. I have been saying this for awhile. Palin & Huckabee split the social conservative vote. Romney is way too suspect after Masscare. Newt? Too much baggage.

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  #25  
Old 01-18-2011, 10:19 AM
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First senate shoe - this was probably destined as a GOP pick-up (ND)
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Old 01-20-2011, 5:17 AM
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The fun is starting with some putting on a brave face - the senate races again could be the most entertaining, even in a presidential year.
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Writer has some problems -
Quote:
Republicans, meanwhile, will likely only have 10 seats up in the next election.
- not likely, but WILL.
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  #27  
Old 01-20-2011, 5:18 AM
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Missouri - a definite GOP pick-up possibility
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  #28  
Old 01-20-2011, 9:52 AM
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An early ABC/WaPo poll - I found it bit interesting in that Romney slipped to third (not highlighted in the article). I'd be curious on the demographics and how the respondents were catogorized in to the various camps. I think the poll also shows a desire for a more conservative candidate at the top and therein lies a problem for the GOP as the contenders, assuming they run, split votes. What puts Humpty Dumpty together again if the primaries go south?
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Old 01-20-2011, 12:34 PM
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... I'd be curious on the demographics and how the respondents were catogorized in to the various camps. I think the poll also shows a desire for a more conservative candidate at the top and therein lies a problem for the GOP as the contenders ... SOURCE
Mmmmm ...

The GOP is toast unless they can:

1) Forward candidates that are serious fiscal conservatives.

... just sayin', there is no number 2).


=========

" House GOP Lists $2.5 Trillion in Spending Cuts " - Yeah Who? - Paul Bedard, January 20, 2011

" ... the "Spending Reduction Act of 2011" proposed by members of the conservative Republican Study Committee ... would reduce current spending for non-defense, non-homeland security and non-veterans programs to 2008 levels, eliminate federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, cut the federal workforce by 15 percent through attrition, and cut some $80 billion by blocking implementation of Obamacare . ..."

Well, that's a start, anyway. Where is my middle class tax cut?
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  #30  
Old 01-20-2011, 10:24 PM
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Latest GOP rankings from Professor Larry Sabato

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  #31  
Old 01-21-2011, 7:17 AM
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Sabato - order looks correct but I think he has far too many in the first tier based on polling - outside of the top three, the rest are mired in single digits today. Missing: Rudy?
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Old 01-22-2011, 6:47 PM
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Big Wash Post story on the fight for the GOP nomination. "Fluidity" is a good term to use.

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Old 01-22-2011, 10:20 PM
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We are in an extraordinarily dynamic situation. All of the pundits and strategists are shooting in the dark. Most of them are stricken to the core that there has been a conservative resurgence against the progressive fait accompli. The far left is mad that the Dems didn't go all the way with healthcare or do much of anything except hand billions out to bankers(damned capitalists!).

I'd say forget all conventional wisdom. There is no telling what is going to happen. The Republicans appear to be coming out swinging, a thing not seen since the 90's. I'm optimistic.
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Old 01-24-2011, 7:37 AM
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Now this is a method that IMO is NOT how one looks at 2012. Although I like the way Myra Adams starts with numbers (even if the CNN source may be suspect based on past methodologies), one should not that outside of FL, she concentrated on states that are not on the GOP radar. The GOP, to capture the WH need to concentrate on the states McCain lost - these are all competitive and, probably more important come 2012, trending conservative. The more I dove into this article, it seemed to be a shot across the bow to warn the GOP away from a conservative toward someone in the middle - without naming names herself, I would bet she likes Romney.
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Old 01-24-2011, 2:27 PM
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60% to the top three will make it difficult for a dark horse to rise. And as David indicated elsewhere, we continue to see the conservatives splitting between Palin and Huckabee. Other than Gingrich at 11% the rest reside below undecided (10%).
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I do note that the question was limited to seven candidates (Pence, Thune and others were not part of the list that Rasmussen used in the survey) but I really doubt much difference would be noted.
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Old 01-25-2011, 6:01 PM
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Wash Post lib Richard Cohen puts his ignorance on display. The GOP field might not contain household names. But, there are some real stars here. All Cohen does here is display his ignorance.

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Old 01-25-2011, 6:25 PM
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Wash Post lib Richard Cohen puts his ignorance on display. The GOP field might not contain household names. But, there are some real stars here. All Cohen does here is display his ignorance.

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I just sent him a respectful email. Let's see if he responds.
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  #38  
Old 01-26-2011, 6:19 AM
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Another good article why BHO will be formidable - an incumbent will always have an advantage. The question in the current political climate is does approval mean turn out? The issue with polling I've noted from the mid-term (albeit a different beast than presidential elections) is the enthusiasm factor. Looking back to 2008 - the "approval" weight of McCain was not below 50% but who really WANTED to vote for him? The early article shows about a 35-35 split in the "base" - probably accurate. Who votes in that base and who wins the other 30% will determine the next president. I'm not convinced the GOP has necessarily the combination of candidate, message, and enthusiasm but I am thoroughly convinced that the enthusiasm to vote for BHO is nowhere near the 2008 levels.
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  #39  
Old 01-27-2011, 4:21 AM
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The headline is interesting from Rasmussen - 33% of GOP don't want Palin to run. Seems like a shock but when you look at the GOP favorable opinion numbers (Romney 81, Palin 79, Huckabee 77) tells you that of these three, the GOP wouldn't throw up their hands in disgust and simply stay home regardless of who is on the ticket. This then begs the question using the numbers of the Myra Adams article and some of the discussions around the people who are leaving the DIMS (call it whatever you want from white flight to simply disillusioned with BHO) - who on the GOP can win that group and who can appeal to the electorate to come out and vote? This is a large block nationally (30%) and probably similar numbers (+/- 5%) in various states. The battle in the states that McCain lost will be the key element - not the national polls. And the GOP favorable opinions indicates clearly that these three will not be an issue causing people "not to vote" as we heard during 2008. The question becomes who best goes after the independents who swung heavily to the GOP in November 2010?
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Who are the disillusioned voters on the democrat side - these are the Reagan-democrats for the most part. Of the three above (and the love for a dark horse / libertarian won't cut it - Gingrich comes in at 70% and Paul at 53% suggests they would not get the turn-out of party faithfuls) - only Palin and Huckabee will have that appeal. The murky middle is where the 2012 race will be fought once the primaries are done. The GOP opinions indicates that these three candidates will be splitting the vote in the primaries. Will this be a party selection or a grass root selection? The field appears to many to be quite full (I think I counted at least a dozen potential candidates) but the three above seem to have the ball in their court and none of them are willing to let go.
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For the conservative side of the coin, sadly, you have a virtual even split with Palin and Huckabee - neither will appeal to a center-left DIM but both can draw from the disillusioned and the center-right DIMS (read Reagan) far better than Romney. But with two conservatives splitting the ticket, the GOP could easily be looking at another nominee who drew only a third in the early states and become the "anointed" one in the eyes of the media and cable talking heads. Palin versus Romney or Huckabee versus Romney - the conservative message wins and draws the primary voters. Romney will want both of them involved and will not dissuade either with rhetoric or innuendos as that is his best hope of securing the nomination.
***
May I also suggest that the "call for civility" comes from two groups - the liberal left getting their clocks cleaned in November and the independents who claim to be above the rhetoric. The continual attacks upon Palin could result in the independents simply going for the person attacked if the provocation continues beyond the nomination process. We may think of the murky middle as squishes and unable to state an opinion but one thing I've noted over the past few election cycles - they do despise attack / negative politics and will attribute the attacks coming from whatever source to the opponent.
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  #40  
Old 01-27-2011, 7:05 AM
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Good analysis of reflecting on 2012 by state (person writes better than I do but I see the same thing!)
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