2012 Senate Races

[schaabdl]

Time to separate from the GOP centric (IMO). Sean Trende tends to have good information and this early scoring of the upcoming races. Naturally the primaries along with retirements will play a key role.
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[David]

Originally Posted by schaabdl

Time to separate from the GOP centric (IMO). Sean Trende tends to have good information and this early scoring of the upcoming races. Naturally the primaries along with retirements will play a key role.
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Good assessment. Lot more Dem seats to defend. GOP only needs net gain of 3. I like their chances. 23 Dems. 10 GOP seats to defend.

[schaabdl]

2012 will again be a fun election for political junkies. Unfortunately, the top of the ticket is shaping up closer to 1996 results as the GOP will eat their own.

[schaabdl]

George Allen in VA - this is probably the best answer in VA for the GOP although there may be some others but this is a name that will be hard to beat.
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[David]

Originally Posted by schaabdl

George Allen in VA - this is probably the best answer in VA for the GOP although there may be some others but this is a name that will be hard to beat.
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[schaabdl]

Saul Anuzis in MI and Ann Wagner in MO contemplating runs. Both recently involved in the campaign for RNC chairman. The GOP bench looking good. One could be excused to dream but I wonder if it would be too greedy to contemplate not only control of the Senate but a filibuster proof Senate. Well, haven't looked at the seats and vulnerability yet but liking what I am seeing so far by the GOP. Looking at the source above: it shows 12 DIM seats and 3 GOP as vulnerable - a +9 pick-up would be nice but it is a bit early to use that number.
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[schaabdl]

Ron Paul in TX? Would be interesting but with his plum house position I would not think this will happen.
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[David]

Michael Williams is primed to take Texas by storm. I think he's well positioned.

America's Next Top Tea Partier
by Benjamin Sarlin




Michael Williams announced a bid Thursday for Texas’ Senate seat. The Tea Party loves him, but can he overcome a tough primary to become the Senate’s lone black member? Williams talks to Benjamin Sarlin about his plan to win, his friendship with George W. Bush, and his trademark bowtie.

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[schaabdl]

Times early assessment
The interesting aspect is how far behind the DIMS appear to be in funds and finding candidates to run / challenge. This might actually translate to that the seats some might think vulnerable on the GOP side really aren't in the reality of political battles.
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[Rafael]

Can't decide if this link has been posted here. Well - just in case ...

http://spectator.org/archives/2011/01/27/texas-tea

[schaabdl]

Memory lane - help me if I am wrong. Didn't candidate Manchin (D-WV) take out a rifle a put a hole through the health care during the campaign? So tell me why he voted against the repeal?

[schaabdl]

I did the checking
a) His ad stated he would "repeal the bad parts of Obamacare" (one wonders what those are beyond the 1099 requirement!)
b) He shot through cap and trade bill
My apologies Mr. Manchin for suggesting otherwise but you could have gone a long with your supposed conservative stance by joinong the opposition and the federal judge when you had a chance.

[David]

Supporter says Mourdock to announce Lugar challenge on Feb. 22
By Aaron Blake

Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock will announce a primary challenge to Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) on Feb. 22, according to an e-mail from a Mourdock supporter.

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[David]

Republican Congressman Takes Aims at Tester’s Senate Seat in Montana
By CARL HULSE
The 2012 race for Montana’s Senate seat moved into the high-profile, competitive category on Saturday, with the official announcement by Republican Representative Denny Rehberg that he would seek to replace Senator Jon Tester, the first-term Montana Democrat.

“If this is a campaign on the issues with two contrasting philosophies, I better represent the state of Montana,” Mr. Rehberg, who has served six terms as the state’s sole member of the House, said in an interview with the Billings Gazette.

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[schaabdl]

Open Seat - VA - Jim Webb (D) will not seek re-election
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[David]

Great news!

[David]

Nate Silver really does a fabulous job. He's a lib, but places much more emphasis on being seen as a wonky math guy. His analysis here boils down to one question. Will Tim Kaine run for the seat?

[schaabdl]

Kyl stepping down in AZ. For all the JD fans, another chance? This is immediately a toss-up, lean right seat.
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[David]

I am thinking one of the House members. Floyd Flake. Trent Franks. I think JD is very flawed.

[schaabdl]

Agreed - I just threw JD's name out there because of all the talk during McCain-JD race (smile) - I heard some actually suggesting Giffords - I'm trying not to be insensitive but that would only be a sympathy ploy to gain the seats. Flake, probably on the GOP side and Napolitano on the DIM side seems a likely battle.