Presidential Campaign Polls

[redhead]

Originally Posted by dcannady

Democrats all across the country are going to be beaten. There will be weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Democrats at the depth of the loss they are about to experience.

Except for California. With Cali's Top Two system (top two vote getters are on the fall ballot, regardless of party) there are congressional districts with two Dems to choose from. I haven't fished through all of the returns, but haven't seen one yet with two Repubs as top two vote getters. It could happen, so we've been told. I know that in my district, state senate and state assembly each had only one name on the ballot. Incumbent Democrat. Oh joy.

[David]

Poll: It's a dead heat in Michigan

SOURCE

[David]

Scott Rasmussen ‏@RasmussenPoll

#Colorado: #Obama 45%, #Romney 45%

[schaabdl]

I am liking what I see if only to get rid of BHO. Morris makes a good observation and my history of watching polls agree - incumbents don't gain the undecided. Analogy - if you are asked if you will still be married to the same woman a year from now and you say I don't know then you are not likely to remain married.

[David]

Could Mitt Romney win Michigan?
By Rachel Weiner, Updated: Thursday, June 7, 2:35 PM

A new poll has former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney tied with President Obama in Michigan.

In the survey from the Lansing-based EPIC-MRA, which partners with news organizations, Romney takes 46 percent to 45 percent for the incumbent — well within the survey’s four point margin of error. In an April EPIC-MRA poll, Obama received 47 to 43 percent for Romney.

Romney was born and raised in Michigan, and that hometown edge might give him a boost in a state that has been reliably Democratic over the past two decades. Attack ads from outside groups supporting Romney could also be doing the president damage.

According to this poll, while Obama’s support of same-sex marriage appears to be as much of a turnoff in this state as Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout.

SOURCE

[Mad_Dog]

Amazing how many states Romney claims as his "home" state. Just a thought.

[David]

Oversampling Dems
By Michael G. Franc
June 7, 2012 12:00 P.M.

How important is it for polling organizations to include the correct proportions of self-identified Republicans and Democrats in their polls? The short answer is: Extremely.

In this hyper-partisan age, the partisan ratio can not only determine the poll’s top-line results, but also shape the ensuing media interpretation of what it all “means.” That interpretation defines the expectations game, which, in turn, affects fundraising, voter enthusiasm, and turnout.

According to a spate of recent polls conducted by Marist/NBC News, Democrats hold strong or even commanding leads in three key U.S. Senate races: Florida (up 4 points), Virginia (up 6), and Ohio (up 14). In three other swing states — Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa — recent Marist/NBC News polls found President Obama and Governor Romney locked in a dead heat.

Are Republican prospects really that much rosier in these swing states out West and on the Plains than they are in the East and industrial Midwest? The discrepancy, it seems, may be due to the percentage of self-identified Democrats and Republicans in the survey samples.

In Marist’s survey of the Florida Senate race, for example, Democrats in the sample outnumbered Republicans by 8 percentage points (43 to 35 percent). In Ohio, the Democratic advantage was 9 points (37 to 28 percent); in Virginia, the spread was considerably smaller (31 to 29 percent). In contrast, two of the three polls that found the presidential race to be neck and neck sampled significantly more Republicans. Marist actually included more Republicans than Democrats in the Colorado and Iowa polls — a 4-point advantage in Colorado (35 to 31 percent) and a 1-point spread in Iowa (35 to 34 percent). In the Nevada survey, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by only 2 points, as in Virginia (40 to 38 percent).

So what partisan baseline should polling organizations use? After all, baselines can determine the shape and outcome of important Washington policy debates, whether the discussion is about budgets, taxes, or polls. Did the Gang of Six propose the largest tax increase or the largest tax cut in human history? The answer depends on the baseline one uses. Tell me your baseline, and you’ve told me everything I need to know about your analysis.

I have found that the most reliable baseline on party identification, both nationally and at the state level, comes from the extensive polling conducted by the Gallup Organization. Each year Gallup collapses the 350,000-plus interviews it has conducted throughout the year into one overall snapshot of party affiliation. In February, Gallup released the results of 353,492 such interviews conducted during 2011, including more than 1,000 in each of the 50 states and an enormous number in the states surveyed by Marist/NBC News: 18,090 people were interviewed in Florida, 13,172 in Ohio, 9,927 in Virginia, 7,105 in Colorado, 4,439 in Iowa, and 2,730 in Nevada. If volume counts, Gallup’s data mine of interviews is sheer gold.

In reviewing all this data, Gallup identified an important national trend:

In the last four years, the political leanings of Americans have increasingly moved toward the Republican Party after shifting decidedly Democratic between 2005 and 2008. In 2008, Democrats had one of the largest advantages in party affiliation they have had in the last 20 years. . . . Prior to that, the parties were more evenly balanced.

The net result of the movement is that the nation looks to be essentially even in terms of its party loyalties headed into a presidential election year. Clearly, President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president.

The partisan divide, Gallup found, has narrowed not only nationally, but in almost every state as well. Gallup’s 2008 surveys of state-level party identification found that the terrain in all the states Marist surveyed was decidedly pro-Obama and pro–Democratic Party. The Democratic advantage ranged from 9 percentage points (in Virginia and Florida) to 11 points (in Nevada and Colorado) to an overwhelming margin of 18 points (in Ohio and Iowa).

The intervening years, as the table above depicts, have not been kind to the president and his party. Whatever the cause of this shift, the two parties now are essentially at parity in all six of these states.

SOURCE

[David]

For Obama and Romney, Virginia could hold the key
The president is making it a priority to win the state again; his Republican rival may need it more.

SOURCE

[David]

Rasmussen Iowa Romney 47% Obama 46%

[David]

Dem pollsters: Obama may face 'impossible headwind'

SOURCE

[David]

Reuters Politics ‏@ReutersPolitics

Obama's approval rating down 3 points to 47 percent, lowest since January: Reuters/Ipsos poll

[schaabdl]

RCP averages - more states moving from Lean DIM to Toss Up - historically, for an incumbent, this is never good news. Far too many states have a large undecided with incumbent below 50% - more bad news. May be close popular but it is getting a smell of electoral landslide - not a rout like Reagan-Mondale but a comfortable win.

[David]

A new Rasmussen poll shows that Obama's once-comfortable lead is Wisconsin is also completely lost in just three months, thanks to a boost from Gov. Scott Walker's recall election win last week.

Romney now leads Obama in Wisconsin, 47 percent to 44 percent. He's swung the state race there by 14 points since March, when he was staring at a 52-41 deficit.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama...#ixzz1xhM8looT

[David]

We’re a long way from November 6 (145 days for those who are keeping score at home), but Rasmussen’s latest polling of likely voters in states across the land shows Mitt Romney currently leading President Barack Obama in the quest for electoral votes. In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie (and an almost inevitable victory in the House of Representatives, where the 50 state delegations would each cast one vote to

SOURCE

[David]

Mitt Romney has caught President Obama in Michigan, according to a poll released Thursday. Obama still holds a slight edge in the poll, 46.9 to 45.5, but that’s within the survey’s 2.3 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted by Michigan-based political consultants Foster, McCollum, White & Associates. It’s the second straight poll to show Obama and Romney in a dead heat in the Wolverine State. Romney held a 1-point advantage in an EPIC-MRA poll released last week. Obama once had a commanding lead over Romney in Michigan, up by double digits as recently as mid-May

[David]

Yes, Pennsylvania Is Still a Swing State

SOURCE

[David]

Talk about outliers

New Poll Gives Obama Double Digit Lead: A new Bloomberg poll shows Barack Obama 13 points ahead of Mitt Romney

[David]

The Fix ‏

Obama 50, Romney 46 in new Pew poll.

[David]

Scott Rasmussen ‏

New Hampshire: #Obama 48%, #Romney 43%.

[David]

Obama’s supporters are more enthusiastic about him, while Romney’s are fired up by dislike of Obama, the poll found. More than 70 percent of Obama voters say their preference is more a vote for their candidate than a vote against Romney. But a majority of Romney voters, 58 percent, say their vote is more against Obama than it is for Romney (just 38 percent).

SOURCE